samedi, octobre 21, 2006
Luck
[1]
absolutely tickled by 'lucky draw'. here's why:
if in a lucky draw, which is fully random and unbiased, the winner would have had absolutely no control nor influence over the results of the draw, and seeming which, the result that he has won could be claimed to be due to luck that it happened to him instead of all the other people. it could just as well have happened to any other person. *1
but if i look at it from another angle, and i say that in this 'lucky draw' which i am going to conduct, i do not know who is going to win, but definitely someone in this bunch will win, and i can say with 100% certainty, that the win will go to one of these people, and therefore 'luck' will appear/occur/happen. except that i do not know who amongst them will be the one. and if the draw happen to be amongst only 2 participants, then i can even narrow the 'luck' occurence to between 2 people. or if one of the 100 participants sent in 99 entries, he will have 50% of probability of winning, or 50% of being the 'lucky' one to win, whereas the other 99 people will have only 1 in 198 chance of being lucky. i just find it extremely hilarious.
*1 then again, if i look at it from the organiser point of view, the event that this person won the draw can not be said to be the luck of the person, because there was a statistical chance of him winning, and he has not yet violated or deviated from the distribution. only when this person happens to win in the random 'lucky draw', in the same group of participants, with more than the statistically predicted frequency, would he be considered to be, perhaps, 'lucky'.
[2]
and if something happens in your life, to make you say that this must be because i am lucky, you must also show that it happens to you more often than other people, for it to be really lucky. after all, an event, no matter how improbable, must happen to someone. like striking Toto twice or thrice. and it's not really lucky if you buy Toto repeatedly. it must, happen to you more often than predicted, given the number of times which you are in the position to receive it.
if, for example, one 'lucky' thing happens to you, like chancing upon a $50 note on the ground. and it happens to everyone once in 5 years. so everyone thinks that this 'lucky' event happens to them when it happens. but overall, there isn't any luck involved.
Luck
another insane conversation. i dont know how it started, but it's just on Luck. and what's so interesting about luck, what's considered lucky, is it right to say that you feel lucky, or that something happened due to luck, does luck exist?
[1]
absolutely tickled by 'lucky draw'. here's why:
if in a lucky draw, which is fully random and unbiased, the winner would have had absolutely no control nor influence over the results of the draw, and seeming which, the result that he has won could be claimed to be due to luck that it happened to him instead of all the other people. it could just as well have happened to any other person. *1
but if i look at it from another angle, and i say that in this 'lucky draw' which i am going to conduct, i do not know who is going to win, but definitely someone in this bunch will win, and i can say with 100% certainty, that the win will go to one of these people, and therefore 'luck' will appear/occur/happen. except that i do not know who amongst them will be the one. and if the draw happen to be amongst only 2 participants, then i can even narrow the 'luck' occurence to between 2 people. or if one of the 100 participants sent in 99 entries, he will have 50% of probability of winning, or 50% of being the 'lucky' one to win, whereas the other 99 people will have only 1 in 198 chance of being lucky. i just find it extremely hilarious.
*1 then again, if i look at it from the organiser point of view, the event that this person won the draw can not be said to be the luck of the person, because there was a statistical chance of him winning, and he has not yet violated or deviated from the distribution. only when this person happens to win in the random 'lucky draw', in the same group of participants, with more than the statistically predicted frequency, would he be considered to be, perhaps, 'lucky'.
[2]
and if something happens in your life, to make you say that this must be because i am lucky, you must also show that it happens to you more often than other people, for it to be really lucky. after all, an event, no matter how improbable, must happen to someone. like striking Toto twice or thrice. and it's not really lucky if you buy Toto repeatedly. it must, happen to you more often than predicted, given the number of times which you are in the position to receive it.
if, for example, one 'lucky' thing happens to you, like chancing upon a $50 note on the ground. and it happens to everyone once in 5 years. so everyone thinks that this 'lucky' event happens to them when it happens. but overall, there isn't any luck involved.
<< Home